Tag Archives: Northern Ireland

The Irish Conundrum

Who would want to be in Theresa May’s shoes right now? She is caught between the hard rock of the Brexiteers and the harder rock of her Unionist allies the DUP. There she was, about to announce that the whole Brexit thingy was going swimmingly after agreeing to a form of words with the Irish Taoiseach, and even lining up a press conference to have a very public gloat about it, when up pops the prop. That’s Arlene Foster to you and I.

Arlene said that she would never, never, never agree to a soft Brexit on the island of Ireland while the rest of the UK gets a good stiff Brexiting. There’s no way that the hardline Unionists want to miss out on all that fun. So Theresa phones her up and she is told that if she doesn’t change her mind then the whole cash for support deal is as dead Kezia’s TV career (and that’s very dead). Rumour has it that Theresa turned paler than a disabled veteran waiting for their Universal Credit payment.

What’s a failed PM to do? Well she could call the DUP’s bluff and say, “I couldn’t give a XXXX about you Foster, or your bigoted wee party or your 10 votes that keep me and my knife wielding chums in the manner to which we’ve become accustomed,” and cut the deal anyway. This would give the DUP what they want on the frictionless border between the north and the south but also give the DUP what they don’t want in a border in the Irish Sea between the island of Ireland and the remaining islands of the United Kingdom. The DUP could call May’s bluff and withdraw support for the Tories in Westminster and kiss goodbye to their £1bn bung (as if they would ever see it, it’s Tories they’re dealing with after all). This would result in the collapse of the Tories and another general election, which Labour would probably win, and a friend of Sinn Fein as Prime Minister. Never, etc. They would also lose their influence over the Brexit debacle and we know that they don’t want to miss out on any of that self flagellation. But we know that Tories love power, so there’s absolutely no way that the PM would risk the bluff in the first place.

So May could say, “Look EU, there’s no way that we’re going to put up any borders in my precious Britain. So you can stick your poxy trade deal and we’ll go for full Brexitisation.” This would result in a hard border between north and south Ireland, which is what the DUP don’t want, and no border in the Irish Sea which the DUP do want. At least this way the co-religionists would be able to self flagellate with the thorniest of Brexits when the EU call No Deal. Unfortunately for Arlene and the DUP, that’s not what the people of Northern Ireland want; they want to remain in the EU and have no border between north and south. But Arlene doesn’t care because there is currently no Northern Ireland Assembly and Northern Ireland is under direct rule from London (largely due to her own involvement in the Cash for Ash scandal).

Other people may care though, like the businesses who would be unable to have frictionless trade with the Republic of Ireland, or the terrorists who stopped bombing and killing because there was no border, or the majority of people in Northern Ireland who voted to Remain within the EU. They would be up in arms (quite literally for some of them.) They would demand a vote on the re-unification of Ireland which they would probably win. That would mean the end of the UK as we know it. At least it would be long after May is ousted from office so she wouldn’t have to carry the can for it.

The PM could realise the impossibility of Brexit and call the whole thing off, which would probably result in her saying, “Et tu Boris, et tu Gove, et tu Jacob, etc.” as she is repeatedly stabbed by her own party.  Again, we know that Tories love power so there’s no way she’s going to take the knifing for the good of the country or even resign and let some other mug carry the can (that’s her job after all, followed by a retirement gracing the red leather of the House of Lords no doubt.)

The only logical solution is for the UK to remain within the Customs Union and probably the Single Market. This would mean no border between the north and south of Ireland and no sea border between the islands of Ireland and the rest of the islands of the UK. This would be acceptable to the DUP but they also want that hard, thorny Brexit to bash themselves about with, so they won’t be going for this option either. Cue the fall of the Tory government.

My feeling is that the PM will say, “You EU types are being jolly difficult so we don’t want to have a deal with you.” The DUP will be delighted that they got their Brexit whip, but dismayed that they will have a southern (and western) border. May will be knifed by her own party and there will be another general election, which Labour will probably win. The DUP won’t get their bung after all and they will lose all their influence in Westminster. Meanwhile Corbyn will start negotiating with the EU but it will be too late and the UK will crash out of the EU with no deal. Cue the break up of the UK, at least it will be Labour’s fault.

Hard border mainland UK

Borders, NoB orders and Brexit

Hard borders, soft borders, no borders, we’ve heard it all. There has been much debate about which type of border would exist between a post Brexit Scotland and England in the event of Scotland being able to avoid sinking, along with the rest of the UK, into an insular little xenophobic fug with post-imperialistic tendencies. There are various permutations of the argument but we know that the British parties and their “Scottish” stooges will always plum for the most extreme variation in order to scare people into complying with their way of thinking. So lets take a look at that extreme option.

Scotland voted to remain in the EU by a hefty margin, of course the democratic will of the Scottish people matters naught to the British Fundamentalist so they insist that Scotland retains its chains to the sinking ship Britannia and we’ll all sing Jerusalem as we descend to the bottom of the North Sea amid glorious waves of red, white and blue. But let’s assume that Scotland somehow manages to retain her full EU membership (or something very close to it). This option could probably only be achieved with full independence since there is no political will on the part of the British Fundamentalists to do otherwise. They know best you see, just get back into your tartan shortbread tin Scotland.

The British Fundamentalists tell us that a hard border would exist between Scotland and England so we would should really understand what a hard border looks like. First up is the Irish border as it used to look during the euphemistically named “troubles”.

A watchtower on the Irish border

A watchtower on the Irish border

The border itself was very porous with no actual fence or wall dividing Northern Ireland from the Republic of Ireland. There were roadblocks and checkpoints, watchtowers positioned at strategic points and armed soldiers manning them all. This was a hard border. It existed between two EU member states. It blocked the movement of goods, people and services and damaged both countries economies.

The next border is another hard border, more extreme than the last one. It is the former Inner German Border which used to exist back in the days of the Cold War. I used to patrol it and it was scary, it looked like this:

Inner German border

Inner German border

There were walls, anti-vehicle ditches, mine fields (the ploughed strip above), fences, war dogs on running leashes, watch towers, armed troops and all manner of listening and observation devices. The main difference between this border and the former Irish border was that this one was designed to keep people in, not out. I like to think that this would be the type of border that would exist between England and Scotland, one which is designed to keep the poor little Englanders in since they all aspire to get into the prosperous Scotland which stayed in the EU, well maybe not.

The fact is that all borders are artificial constructs, animals and birds do not respect borders. They are by human beings, for human beings. Designed to keep human beings on one side or the other. They exist only by the will of man.

So would this type of border exist between a post Brexit England and an European Scotland? If it did it would be an extension of the English southern border. It would be an English construct since Scotland neither needs nor wants one. The only people who would want one are the UKIPpers and their Daily Express reading followers who have been fed a constant diet of the dangerous migrants and glorious Britain with its smashing Empire. It would be the border between what remains of the UK and the EU/EEA. If rUK made it difficult at one point the EU would make it difficult at all points.  If rUK made it difficult to cross from Scotland within the EU/EEA into rUK then the EU would make it difficult to cross from all EU ports into rUK. For this reason sanity dictates that it would never happen (assuming some sanity still exists in this world).

Now our Tory Brexiteers insist that there would not be a hard border between a post Brexit Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. No real border exists there now and that’s the way that most people on the emerald isle want it to stay. So how can that be? How can Northern Ireland remain within the UK and have no borders with the Republic of Ireland? Well here’s how:

Hard border mainland UK

Hard border mainland UK

The border would exist around mainland UK! Taking us back to dark days of WWII. If you want to travel around the UK you will have to show your papers. Fancy jumping on a ferry to Larne? You’re going to need your passport. Live in Belfast and want to sell those goods to mainland UK? You’re going to have to pay customs duties and fill in lots of paperwork. This is the reality which awaits Northern Ireland and its soft border with the Republic of Ireland, the hard border will exist but it will be on the mainland.

So to sum up, no hard border will exist between Scotland and England whether or not Scotland retains EU membership or not. If NI remains part of UK it will have a hard border at the UK mainland and no border to speak of with the Republic of Ireland, but if NI remains within the EU it won’t have a border at all. Got it?